5 Predictions For Greater Vancouver’s Real Estate Market in 2024
As we step into the uncertain territory of 2024, the real estate market in the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley area appears poised for some growth and opportunities. Reflecting back on the roller coaster of 2022 & 2023, it’s clear to us, that understanding the data and trends can offer insights into what could potentially lie ahead.
As your top local real estate experts, we’ve been closely monitoring recent developments in the market to be able to offer you some predictions for the Real Estate Market in 2024.
(Note: These predictions are just that… predictions. No one will truly know what will happen to the market, what changes will occur and it is best to speak to us about your Real Estate needs during the market of the moment)
1. INTEREST RATES
The trajectory of interest rates has been a significant focal point for most buyers today, particularly in response to the global pandemic. While we’re unlikely to see a return to the rock-bottom rates of the pandemic, signs suggest that rates may start to trend downward in 2024, more towards the end of the year. This gradual decline could stimulate buyer interest and activity, though not to the extent seen during the pandemic. Expect modest drops in rates, potentially between 0.25% to 1% by the year’s end, influencing variable rate mortgages.
Fixed Rate mortgages have already seen some decline in the beginning of the year due to bond yields dropping. This has already started to impact buyer activity through the first few months of 2024.
2. INVENTORY
The beginning of 2024 saw a notable decrease in inventory, with expired listings contributing mostly as we move further into the year, we anticipate a reversal of this trend. A combination of the typical spring market mixed with renewals of mortgages coming up, coupled with the impact of Airbnb & other government regulations, could lead to an influx of properties hitting the market, sellers would be wise to consider listing earlier in the year to avoid the increased competition typically seen during the peak selling season.
3. SALES
Sales activity is closely linked to interest rates and market sentiment. Despite headlines, the underlying demand for housing in Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley remains robust, buoyed by factors such as aggressive immigration policies and significant population growth. Continued stability or even reductions in interest rates will fuel increased buyer activity, particularly if accompanied by government measures to stimulate housing supply, which leads us to the next point.
4. GOVERNMENT POLICY
Recent policy changes at the end of 2023, notably around Airbnb regulations and zoning for increased density, will have a significant role in the impact of the market landscape in 2024. While intended to address housing affordability, supply issues, and affordable rentals, the full impact of these policies remains to be seen as we venture into the year. Red tape and implementation challenges may delay the intended outcomes, highlighting the need for a coordinated approach between different levels of government. Yet to be seen will be the changes the government will also make through 2024.
5. PRICE
Prices in 2024 are likely to reflect the interplay between supply and demand factors. While significant price surges seen during the pandemic are unlikely. Moderate increases in the range of 5% to 7% for detached properties could potentially be expected, and 4% to 6% for condos and townhouses. However, these predictions are subject to change based on ever-evolving market conditions and external influences.
In conclusion, while these predictions offer insights into potential market trends, it’s essential for you to assess your own unique circumstances before making any real estate decisions. Whether buying, selling, or investing, understanding local market dynamics, and aligning with them with your personal goals remains paramount. As we navigate the uncertainties of 2024, informed decision-making coupled with working with industry experts like our team will be key to your success in 2024.